[current Review of SMM] residual clouds harvest summer, new rain belt Qiu Lan.

(22 June)

< 1 > in terms of epidemic situation.

Domestic epidemic situation: confirmed / imported cases / asymptomatic / severe death / 403 + 1876 + 114 + 12 / 4646.

The streets of Huangcun Town and Fengtai Xincun Town in Daxing, Beijing have been upgraded to areas with high risk of the epidemic. At present, there are 4 places with high risk and 37 places with medium risk. Beijing Fengtai Youanmen Street and Changxindian Street were upgraded to risk areas in the epidemic.

Eight people from PepsiCo Beijing Food Factory have been diagnosed and production has been suspended.

Zhang Wenhong: the global epidemic is still rising and will break 10 million in 10 days. Recently, many countries around the world have increased their investment in the research and development of new crown drugs, and speeding up the research and development of vaccine products will also become the key way to solve this global disaster. Whether the vaccine comes or not, the global epidemic will spread at least until the end of the year and the first half of next year.

Zhang Wenhong: this epidemic in Beijing cannot be regarded as the second wave. The outbreak in Beijing is supposed to be a relatively sudden and small-scale outbreak, but the intensity of the outbreak is still under control. The so-called "second wave" must form a very significant peak, which will spread again for a period of time.

General Administration of Customs: 58 cases of new crown pneumonia confirmed by a poultry company in the UK have aroused widespread concern. The General Administration of Customs confirmed that British poultry has not been admitted to China and cannot be exported to China.

A poultry slaughtering enterprise of Tyson (Tyson) Company of the United States recently suffered a new crown pneumonia infection among employees. The General Administration of Customs has suspended the export of P5842 poultry slaughtering products from the company since June 21.

The number of newly crowned infections in German meat factories has risen to more than one thousand, rising to 1029.

Who: the large-scale response measures taken by Beijing demonstrate its sensitivity and ability to contain the virus; the emergence of the new crown virus in Beijing is closely related to the European strain.

Overseas epidemic situation: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 16474 / > 8.9797 million / 46 / 6331.

Us Empire priority: new / confirmed cumulative cases / deaths / 38905 / > 2.3567 million / 12pr 2248.

Trump called virus testing a double-edged sword, and the more tests, the more diagnoses, and suggested slowing down the testing. The 51st state of the United States? A hospital in Athens, Georgia, has been revealed to have manipulated the nucleic acid test results of the new crown virus and issued a negative report to patients who were positive for the test.

Serious countries and regions. Among them, South America and India are deteriorating. The epidemic in Brazil continues to worsen, with the number of new confirmed cases exceeding 50,000 in a single day.

Brazil: > 1.0869 million / 31571 ticker 5pr 0659.

India: > 42, 690000 / 21041 Compact 13703.

UK: > 304300 / 1221 Universe 4pm 2632.

Russia: > 592200 / 7728 Compact 8206.

Peru: > 254900 / 3413 Compact 8045.

Mexico: > 180500 / 4717 Compact 21825.

Chile: > 242300 / 5355 Universe 2237.

Baccartan: > 181000 / 4951: 3590.

Iran: > 204900 / 2368amp 9623.

Canada: > 101300 / 657 Universe 8430.

Saudi Arabia: > 157600 / 3379Comp1267.

Chile: > 225100 / 36179Comp3841.

South Africa: > 97300 / 4966 Compact 1930.

Bangladesh: > 115700 / 3531 Compact 1502.

Turkey: > 187600 / 1248amp 4950.

Columbia: > 68600 / 2357Comp2237.

< 2 > playback from weekend to today

1. Spot market prices are generally strong, giving up some of the gains due to the influence of futures in the afternoon. The Hangzhou market in eastern China, which was suppressed by inventories, rebounded only 20 yuan / ton from the weekend to this morning and gave back 10 yuan / ton in the afternoon. A large steel trader in the Shanghai market deliberately dropped 30 yuan / ton deliberately in order to settle at a low price.

Transaction situation: the transaction volume is OK.

Market mentality: be cautious.

The billet in Tangshan area went up to 3340 yuan / ton.

Raw material end:

The overall price of scrap is stable and weak, and the confidence of scrap merchants has been affected by the weakening demand for finished materials recently, but the overall amount of resources in the scrap market is limited and the price is supported; steel mills begin to reduce the proportion of adding scrap because the cost of scrap price is higher than that of molten iron, coupled with a slight increase in the inventory of finished materials in some steel mills. A small adjustment in individual areas, with a range of 20 murals and 30 yuan per ton. Jiangsu mainstream market heavy waste 6-mm including tax price stable to 2560 yuan / ton, Shandong mainstream market stable to 2590 yuan / ton, Fujian 2610 yuan / ton, Anhui 2550 yuan / ton.

Coke keeps running steadily:

The price of imported main coking coal rose steadily.

The spot market price of iron ore port is generally weak. For details, see SMM Nonferrous net [Daily Review of Iron Ore Market]:

After the opening of the market, Liantie fluctuated all the way down, and the price in the port spot market was basically stable in early trading. In terms of steel mills, some of them are still replenishing warehouses on demand; some are cautious, mainly wait-and-see, and today's activity is relatively low. As for traders, some merchants are willing to sell at high prices today, and their willingness to ship goods is relatively low; some businesses are bearish on the future market, and their bargaining space is slightly expanded, and shipments are more active. The overall deal was mediocre today. The turnover of PB powder in Shandong area was 765 won / ton, while that of PB powder in Tangshan area was 775 / ton, which was about 10 yuan / ton lower than that of last Friday. Taking into account the recent increase in the number of imported mines in Hong Kong, the supply side continues to improve, and the market pessimism has increased compared with the previous period. But at the same time, steel mills maintain a high blast furnace operating rate, iron ore demand remains high, superimposed steel mills in the state of low inventory, there may be plans to increase inventory before the Dragon Boat Festival, iron ore prices still maintain a fluctuating trend.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: rise between 3658 and 3615 within the day, closing at 3620.

HC2010 main contract: rise between 3667 and 3613 within the day, closing at 3631.

Iron ore i2009 main contract: within the day between 772 to 750.5 shock down, closing at 753.5.

Coke J2009 main contract: rise between 1984 and 1935.5 within the day, closing at 1954.

Coking coal JM2009 main contract: within the day between 1193 to 1170 high fall, closing 1176.5.

< 3 > Forecast for tomorrow:

1. Spot aspect: stable, rise and fall dilemma, up and down space is limited.

2. Futures:

RB2010 main contract: concussion between 3580 and 3640.

HC2010 main contract: concussion between 3570 and 3650.

I2009 main contract: concussion between 750 and 770.

J2009 main contract: concussion between 1930 and 2000.

JM2009 main contract: concussion between 1160 and 1200.

3. Spot operation tips: smooth operation before the festival, an appropriate amount of bargain to increase inventory before the beginning of July.

4. Futures.

Thread and hot coil: it is suitable for high throwing and low suction rolling operation in the range.

Iron ore: wait and see for the time being, activists can choose a light warehouse to sell short, stop profit and stop loss in time.

Coke: the volume is mainly high in the range, and the single drop is less than 1930 stop loss.

Coking coal: wait and see, chicken rib market, more trading in the range of activists.

RB2010 main contract: support level 3600, 3570, pressure level 3650.

HC2010 main contract: support level 3600, 3580, pressure level 3650.

I2009 main contract: support 750,743, pressure 770.

J2009 main contract: support level 1930, pressure level 2000.

JM2005 main contract: support level 1160, pressure level 1200.

< 5 > Information and heart words.

1. With the successful issuance of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds last week, the task of issuing 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds will be completed by the end of July, and local governments have officially launched a special treasury bond declaration project to actively strive for this trillion-level "life-saving" fund. It is reported that of the 1 trillion yuan, the amount used for infrastructure projects is 700 billion yuan, which requires a certain amount of income, and this fund is allowed to be used as project capital. The amount of expenditure related to the fight against epidemic is 300 billion yuan.

2. [the central bank has a net investment of 120 billion yuan in the open market today]

The open market of the central bank will conduct 40 billion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation and 80 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation today. No reverse repo expires today, with a net investment of 120 billion yuan in the open market.

3. It is reported on the Internet that the coke enterprises in Xuzhou area of Jiangsu Province have received the exit notice and the news of road digging at the end of the month. According to our network research, the relevant coke enterprises have not received the formal 6.30 exit documents so far, but some coke enterprises have dug up the roads. Whether it is due to coal control or other reasons, it is not known for the time being, and we still need to follow up. It is reported that the coal procurement of some coking enterprises is still implementing the pre-coking coal delivery contracts, and the newly signed contracts have all been stopped. Most coking enterprises said that most of them were in a wait-and-see state before the relevant official documents were issued. The relevant departments have not issued any requirements to stop coal or delay the closure of documents, coke enterprises out of their own considerations to prepare in advance to deal with the possibility of 6.30 policy implementation.

4. Jiangnan Rain Xiaoxiao Jiangshang City and Beijing epidemic still affect market sentiment! Objectively, continuous moderate rain can affect the demand for building materials, otherwise it will be safe and sound. Although there has been a lot of rain in the south of the Yangtze River recently, the overall demand is not bad and is still in a state of peak season. Affected by rain in various parts of the south, it is normal for steel prices to rebound. The author has said that the use of bargain during the rainy period to replenish inventory is still effective, especially in Guangzhou with price depressions. The epidemic in Beijing and the rain in the south of the Yangtze River are only changing the pace of the rebound, do not expect to have much room for rebound, the general direction of rebound is still firmly on the road …. No, no. According to the author's deduction of the rebound time dimension, the probability is delayed to August.

5. The iron ore market is doomed to "there are many stories." Today, the market news is everywhere: the government began to intervene in a steel network data, so the iron ore inventory data of the steel network was revised up sharply. No, no. I would like to ask the shutter people, the previous rise, the domestic demand for iron ore really increased significantly? Or is it just because of increasing the proportion of scrap?! Similarly, the operating rate of blast furnace has declined slightly recently, so does the domestic demand for iron ore really decrease? Or is it just because of reducing the proportion of scrap added? In fact, domestic iron ore demand has not changed much since May, and the so-called inventory data change is more of a service tool for capital positions. The epidemic in Brazil remains a core element and requires constant attention.

Zhou Xinyu is attached.

In terms of steel

Improvement of the macro environment: vaccine research and development has been more successful than expected, the epidemic in Beijing has been brought under control, the National standing Committee has raised the benchmark reduction again, and the Central Mother 300 billion reverse buyback operation. Chang'an a month, ten thousand households ramming clothes sound! The domestic futures market is full of laughter! Although this week is affected by the epidemic in Beijing and the rainy season in the south of the Yangtze River, the demand for building materials has been affected, and the inventory data of the five major products at sunrise this week have slowed down significantly, but they still continue to be de-stocked. The demand for rebar is the most damaged by rain, but in the later stage, with the control of the epidemic situation in Beijing and the improvement of the weather (high temperature does not affect, work in the wrong time), capital construction (funds gradually in place), real estate stock, Xiongan New area construction and other requirements, the author is sure to retaliate again, at the same time, taking into account the flow of hot metal to the hot coil variety, the scrap cost was about 120 yuan / ton higher than the hot metal cost at that time, and the output fell back in stages. In short, there is no doubt that rebar prices have rebounded again. Hope and go and cherish.

Coke

Port inventories fell to 3.15 million tons for four consecutive weeks, a three-month low. In terms of capacity removal: Shandong direction to capacity thunderstorm counterparts; Shanxi direction to capacity reduction thunder sound less rain, continue to pay attention; Xuzhou by the end of June to withdraw 6.8 million tons of capacity is expected. The overall fundamentals continue to improve. Although the average profit of coke enterprises per ton of coke is 300 yuan, which is higher than that of steel mills, the price rise in the later period can still be expected. Long bargain is the main theme.

In terms of iron ore

Capital sentiment still dominates the market, the basic hard core element is the epidemic in Brazil, and the rest of the news is just a routine for the direction of the position.

< 6 > trend logic and point of view remain unchanged: look forward to June! I won't repeat it.